La Liga model board
Live 7 games · next 7 days · version 1 of 5 · updated Wed 9 Sep, 4:51 am ET
Next 7 days · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v1 · 20 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 3:00p | ValenciaatSevilla | 0.0 | -1.5 | +1.5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 40% | +153 | +214 |
| Sat 3:00p | Rayo VallecanoatReal Madrid | -1.8 | -2.5 | +0.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 75% | -305 | +791 |
| Sun 10:15a | BarcelonaatLevante | +1.0 | -1.5 | +2.5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 20% | +401 | +101 |
| Sun 3:00p | Atlético MadridatReal Sociedad | +0.5 | +1.5 | -1.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 26% | +283 | +134 |
| Mon 3:00p | Real BetisatVillarreal | -0.5 | -1.5 | +1.0 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 50% | -100 | +270 |
| Tue 1:00p | EspanyolatRayo Vallecano | -0.6 | -1.5 | +0.9 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 51% | -103 | +299 |
| Tue 2:00p | ValenciaatAlavés | Numbers in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
Spread and total are the model's lines; Market is the consensus book line when this version was published; Gap = ours minus market. Fair price = the odds that would be a fair bet at our win chance, no margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions by day
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v1Fri 11 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 4:51 am ETOpening board · 1 games
v1Sat 12 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 4:51 am ETOpening board · 1 games
v1Sun 13 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 4:51 am ETOpening board · 2 games
v1Mon 14 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 4:51 am ETOpening board · 1 games
v1Tue 15 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 4:51 am ETOpening board · 2 games
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 2:30p | VfB StuttgartatBayern Munich | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 2:45p | VeneziaatAC Milan | — | — | — | — | — | 70% | -229 | +229 |
| Fri 3:00p | Manchester CityatCrystal Palace | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 3:30p | VillarrealatAlavés | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 7:30a | Nottingham ForestatLiverpool | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11:00a | Real BetisatLevante | — | — | — | — | — | 33% | +200 | -200 |
| Sat 12:30p | Newcastle UnitedatTottenham Hotspur | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 12:30p | UdineseatMonza | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 12:30p | TorinoatSassuolo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 12:30p | FrosinoneatFiorentina | — | — | — | — | — | 59% | -144 | +144 |
| Sat 1:00p | EspanyolatReal Sociedad | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 2:45p | ToulouseatBrest | — | — | — | — | — | 39% | +157 | -157 |
| Sat 2:45p | TroyesatLorient | — | — | — | — | — | 56% | -126 | +126 |
| Sat 2:45p | ParmaatJuventus | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 3:30p | Atlético MadridatSevilla | — | — | — | — | — | 30% | +237 | -237 |
| Sat 4:30p | Chicago FireatSeattle Sounders FC | — | — | — | — | — | 45% | +120 | -120 |
| Sat 7:30p | New England RevolutionatColumbus Crew SC | — | — | — | — | — | 51% | -104 | +104 |
| Sat 7:30p | New York City FCatToronto FC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 7:30p | CF MontrealatInter Miami CF | — | — | — | — | — | 75% | -301 | +301 |
| Sat 7:30p | Charlotte FCatAtlanta United FC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 7:30p | Philadelphia UnionatNew York Red Bulls | — | — | — | — | — | 37% | +173 | -173 |
| Sat 8:30p | Orlando City SCatMinnesota United FC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 8:30p | Vancouver Whitecaps FCatSporting Kansas City | — | — | — | — | — | 15% | +571 | -571 |
| Sat 8:30p | San Jose EarthquakesatHouston Dynamo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 8:30p | FC CincinnatiatNashville SC | — | — | — | — | — | 56% | -129 | +129 |
| Sat 9:30p | Real Salt LakeatColorado Rapids | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10:30p | Austin FCatPortland Timbers | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sun 9:00a | NiceatParis FC | — | — | — | — | — | 47% | +113 | -113 |
| Sun 9:00a | FulhamatSunderland | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sun 9:00a | BrentfordatLeeds United | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sun 9:30a | Werder BremenatSC Freiburg | — | — | — | — | — | 49% | +103 | -103 |
| Sun 11:30a | Ipswich TownatManchester United | — | — | — | — | — | 75% | -294 | +294 |
| Sun 12:30p | ComoatNapoli | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sun 2:45p | MarseilleatAS Monaco | — | — | — | — | — | 41% | +143 | -143 |
| Sun 2:45p | GenoaatLazio | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sun 7:00p | FC DallasatSt. Louis City SC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mon 12:30p | AS RomaatLecce | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mon 3:00p | ArsenalatAston Villa | — | — | — | — | — | 22% | +363 | -363 |
| Mon 3:30p | Rayo VallecanoatBarcelona | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thu 2:45p | LilleatToulouse | — | — | — | — | — | 29% | +241 | -241 |
| Thu 3:00p | Celta VigoatReal Sociedad | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 2:45p | ComoatGenoa | — | — | — | — | — | 20% | +413 | -413 |
| Fri 3:00p | Real MadridatReal Betis | — | — | — | — | — | 27% | +264 | -264 |
| Fri 7:30p | Nashville SCatNew York City FC | — | — | — | — | — | 35% | +186 | -186 |
| Sat 9:00a | TorinoatFiorentina | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9:30a | RB LeipzigatWerder Bremen | — | — | — | — | — | 23% | +328 | -328 |
| Sat 9:30a | Borussia DortmundatTSG Hoffenheim | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10:00a | SunderlandatBrentford | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10:00a | Crystal PalaceatFulham | — | — | — | — | — | 44% | +126 | -126 |
| Sat 10:00a | Tottenham HotspuratNottingham Forest | — | — | — | — | — | 48% | +107 | -107 |
| Sat 7:30p | CF MontrealatPhiladelphia Union | — | — | — | — | — | 65% | -184 | +184 |
| Sat 7:30p | D.C. UnitedatFC Cincinnati | — | — | — | — | — | 64% | -176 | +176 |
| Sat 7:30p | Atlanta United FCatInter Miami CF | — | — | — | — | — | 72% | -260 | +260 |
| Sat 7:30p | Chicago FireatToronto FC | — | — | — | — | — | 36% | +179 | -179 |
| Sat 7:30p | Colorado RapidsatColumbus Crew SC | — | — | — | — | — | 51% | -104 | +104 |
| Sat 8:30p | New York Red BullsatSeattle Sounders FC | — | — | — | — | — | 53% | -115 | +115 |
| Sat 8:30p | Sporting Kansas CityatFC Dallas | — | — | — | — | — | 71% | -241 | +241 |
| Sat 8:30p | San Jose EarthquakesatAustin FC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9:30p | Los Angeles FCatReal Salt Lake | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10:30p | Minnesota United FCatPortland Timbers | — | — | — | — | — | 44% | +130 | -130 |
| Sat 10:30p | St. Louis City SCatVancouver Whitecaps FC | — | — | — | — | — | 68% | -214 | +214 |
| Sun 9:00a | Manchester UnitedatEverton | — | — | — | — | — | 34% | +191 | -191 |
| Sun 9:00a | MonzaatParma | — | — | — | — | — | 44% | +125 | -125 |
| Sun 9:00a | StrasbourgatTroyes | — | — | — | — | — | 33% | +206 | -206 |
| Sun 10:15a | BarcelonaatValencia | — | — | — | — | — | 16% | +521 | -521 |
| Sun 11:30a | ChelseaatArsenal | — | — | — | — | — | 64% | -176 | +176 |
| Sun 12:00p | SassuoloatBologna | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sun 2:45p | AC MilanatJuventus | — | — | — | — | — | 44% | +129 | -129 |
| Sun 3:00p | SevillaatEspanyol | — | — | — | — | — | 47% | +114 | -114 |
| Mon 12:00p | LecceatCagliari | — | — | — | — | — | 43% | +131 | -131 |
| Mon 1:00p | Celta VigoatGetafe | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mon 2:45p | LazioatUdinese | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 7:30p | Charlotte FCatCF Montreal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 7:30p | FC CincinnatiatPhiladelphia Union | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 7:30p | Orlando City SCatAtlanta United FC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 7:30p | Columbus Crew SCatD.C. United | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 7:30p | Nashville SCatToronto FC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 8:00p | New England RevolutionatNew York City FC | — | — | — | — | — | 50% | +100 | -100 |
| Wed 8:30p | Real Salt LakeatHouston Dynamo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 8:30p | Inter Miami CFatChicago Fire | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 8:30p | Colorado RapidsatAustin FC | — | — | — | — | — | 40% | +151 | -151 |
| Wed 8:30p | FC DallasatMinnesota United FC | — | — | — | — | — | 47% | +113 | -113 |
| Wed 10:30p | LA GalaxyatVancouver Whitecaps FC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 10:30p | New York Red BullsatLos Angeles FC | — | — | — | — | — | 67% | -201 | +201 |
| Wed 10:30p | San Jose EarthquakesatSan Diego FC | — | — | — | — | — | 63% | -169 | +169 |
| Wed 10:30p | St. Louis City SCatPortland Timbers | — | — | — | — | — | 49% | +103 | -103 |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The model's expected combined score. The market column beside it is the consensus book line when this version was published.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no margin built in, for the home side and the away side.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
Want the whole board, every week, in your own spreadsheet? The 4-week pilot gives you every game on this board as a file, a live link, an API and an email. It continues as the monthly licence from day 28 unless you cancel before then.
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