Premier League model board
Live 10 games · next 7 days · version 29 of 65 · updated Mon 5 Oct, 10:00 pm ET
Next 7 days · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v29 · 1 days agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:30a | Leeds UnitedatArsenal | -1.2 | -1.5 | +0.3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 62% | -160 | +601 |
| Sat 10:00a | BrentfordatAston Villa | -0.3 | -1.5 | +1.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 39% | +154 | +176 |
| Sat 10:00a | BournemouthatChelsea | -0.2 | -1.5 | +1.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 43% | +132 | +218 |
| Sat 10:00a | FulhamatIpswich Town | +0.1 | -1.5 | +1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 42% | +139 | +192 |
| Sat 10:00a | Brighton and Hove AlbionatSunderland | -0.1 | -1.5 | +1.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 38% | +164 | +168 |
| Sat 12:30p | Tottenham HotspuratManchester United | -1.2 | -1.5 | +0.3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 63% | -168 | +452 |
| Sun 9:00a | Nottingham ForestatCrystal Palace | 4 more games with every column in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Sun 9:00a | EvertonatHull City | ····· | |||||||
| Sun 11:30a | Manchester CityatLiverpool | ····· | |||||||
| Mon 3:00p | Newcastle UnitedatCoventry City | ····· | |||||||
Spread and total are the model's lines; Market is the consensus book line when this version was published; Gap = ours minus market. Fair price = the odds that would be a fair bet at our win chance, no margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions by day
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v29Sat 10 Oct · Mon 5 Oct, 10:00 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 1 calibrated / 5 model (draw 0/2/4) · 6 games
v28Sat 10 Oct · Fri 2 Oct, 6:10 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 1 calibrated / 5 model (draw 0/2/4) · 6 games
v27Sat 10 Oct · Mon 28 Sep, 10:45 pm ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 1 calibrated / 5 model (draw 0/2/4) · 6 games
v27Sun 11 Oct · Sat 3 Oct, 9:53 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 1 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/2/1) · 3 games
v26Sat 10 Oct · Sun 27 Sep, 10:38 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 6 model (draw 0/0/6) · 6 games
v26Sun 11 Oct · Tue 29 Sep, 11:18 pm ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 1 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/2/1) · 3 games
v25Sat 10 Oct · Sun 27 Sep, 4:59 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 6 model (draw 0/0/6) · 6 games
v25Sun 11 Oct · Tue 29 Sep, 5:16 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v24Sat 10 Oct · Sat 26 Sep, 5:11 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 6 model (draw 0/0/6) · 6 games
v24Sun 11 Oct · Mon 28 Sep, 10:45 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v23Sat 10 Oct · Fri 25 Sep, 11:09 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 6 model (draw 0/0/6) · 6 games
v23Sun 11 Oct · Fri 25 Sep, 11:09 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v22Sat 10 Oct · Fri 25 Sep, 5:34 am ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 6 model (draw 0/0/6) · 6 games
v22Sun 11 Oct · Fri 25 Sep, 5:34 am ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v21Sat 10 Oct · Thu 24 Sep, 11:06 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 6 model (draw 0/0/6) · 6 games
v21Sun 11 Oct · Thu 24 Sep, 5:10 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v20Sat 10 Oct · Thu 24 Sep, 5:10 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 6 model (draw 0/0/6) · 6 games
v20Sun 11 Oct · Wed 23 Sep, 10:59 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v19Sat 10 Oct · Wed 23 Sep, 5:47 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 6 model (draw 0/0/6) · 6 games
v19Sun 11 Oct · Wed 23 Sep, 5:47 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v18Sat 10 Oct · Tue 22 Sep, 11:41 pm ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 6 model (draw 0/0/6) · 6 games
v18Sun 11 Oct · Tue 22 Sep, 11:41 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v17Sat 10 Oct · Tue 22 Sep, 4:53 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v17Sun 11 Oct · Tue 22 Sep, 4:53 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v16Sat 10 Oct · Mon 21 Sep, 10:42 pm ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v16Sun 11 Oct · Mon 21 Sep, 10:42 pm ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 3 model (draw 0/0/3) · 3 games
v15Sat 10 Oct · Mon 21 Sep, 6:06 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v15Sun 11 Oct · Mon 21 Sep, 6:06 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v14Sat 10 Oct · Sat 19 Sep, 10:12 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v14Sun 11 Oct · Sat 19 Sep, 10:12 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v13Sat 10 Oct · Sat 19 Sep, 4:27 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v13Sun 11 Oct · Sat 19 Sep, 4:27 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v12Sat 10 Oct · Fri 18 Sep, 10:37 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v12Sun 11 Oct · Fri 18 Sep, 10:37 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v11Sat 10 Oct · Fri 18 Sep, 4:46 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v11Sun 11 Oct · Fri 18 Sep, 4:46 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v10Sat 10 Oct · Thu 17 Sep, 9:59 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v10Sun 11 Oct · Thu 17 Sep, 4:39 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v9Sat 10 Oct · Wed 16 Sep, 10:24 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v9Sun 11 Oct · Wed 16 Sep, 10:24 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v9Mon 12 Oct · Mon 5 Oct, 4:36 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 1 model (draw 0/0/1) · 1 games
v8Sat 10 Oct · Wed 16 Sep, 4:01 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v8Sun 11 Oct · Wed 16 Sep, 4:01 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v8Mon 12 Oct · Sun 4 Oct, 10:08 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 1 model (draw 0/0/1) · 1 games
v7Sat 10 Oct · Tue 15 Sep, 9:37 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v7Sun 11 Oct · Tue 15 Sep, 9:37 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v7Mon 12 Oct · Sun 4 Oct, 4:30 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 1 model (draw 0/0/1) · 1 games
v6Sat 10 Oct · Tue 15 Sep, 4:35 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 4 model (draw 0/0/4) · 4 games
v6Sun 11 Oct · Tue 15 Sep, 4:35 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 2 model (draw 0/0/2) · 2 games
v6Mon 12 Oct · Sat 3 Oct, 9:53 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 1 model (draw 0/0/1) · 1 games
v5Sat 10 Oct · Mon 14 Sep, 9:58 pm ETMarket refresh · 4 games
v5Sun 11 Oct · Mon 14 Sep, 9:58 pm ETMarket refresh · 2 games
v5Mon 12 Oct · Fri 25 Sep, 11:09 pm ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 1 model (draw 0/0/1) · 1 games
v4Sat 10 Oct · Mon 14 Sep, 5:23 am ETMarket refresh · 4 games
v4Sun 11 Oct · Mon 14 Sep, 5:23 am ETMarket refresh · 2 games
v4Mon 12 Oct · Fri 25 Sep, 5:34 am ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 1 model (draw 0/0/1) · 1 games
v3Sat 10 Oct · Sun 13 Sep, 10:30 pm ETRefresh · 4 games
v3Sun 11 Oct · Sun 13 Sep, 10:30 pm ETRefresh · 2 games
v3Mon 12 Oct · Wed 23 Sep, 5:47 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 1 model (draw 0/0/1) · 1 games
v2Sat 10 Oct · Sun 13 Sep, 4:26 am ETMarket refresh · 4 games
v2Sun 11 Oct · Sun 13 Sep, 4:26 am ETMarket refresh · 2 games
v2Mon 12 Oct · Tue 22 Sep, 4:53 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 1 model (draw 0/0/1) · 1 games
v1Sat 10 Oct · Sat 12 Sep, 10:05 pm ETOpening board · 4 games
v1Sun 11 Oct · Sat 12 Sep, 10:05 pm ETOpening board · 2 games
v1Mon 12 Oct · Mon 21 Sep, 10:42 pm ETOpening board | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 1 model (draw 0/0/1) · 1 games
Game markets this week · 8 market types · 144 main lines across 10 games · team totals, halves, quarters and more, priced by our model
v43 · 43 min agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price | Market price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Spread | Leeds United | 1 | 43% | +133 | +120 |
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Spread | Leeds United | 1.2 | 51% | -105 | -120 |
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Spread | Leeds United | 1.5 | 58% | -136 | -132 |
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Spread | Leeds United | 1.8 | 65% | -186 | -204 |
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Spread | Leeds United | 2.5 | 79% | -372 | -400 |
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Spread | Leeds United | 3.5 | 91% | -958 | -1429 |
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Spread | Leeds United | 138 more main lines and every alternate in the pilot · open the full board | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Both teams to score | No | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Total corners | Over | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Total corners | Over | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Total corners | Over | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Total corners | Over | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Draw no bet | Leeds United | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | Moneyline | Draw | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30a | United at Arsenal | 3-way moneyline | Draw | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Spread | Brentford | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Spread | Aston Villa | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Spread | Aston Villa | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Spread | Aston Villa | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Spread | Aston Villa | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Spread | Aston Villa | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 10:00a | Brentford at Villa | Total | Under | ····· | |||
114 more main lines and every alternate line are in the markets file with the pilot. Our chance = the model's probability this side wins at this line; fair price carries no margin; market price is the consensus across books at publish. Alternate lines, the projection behind each market and every version are in the markets file.Game markets come with every board licence at no extra cost.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9:00a | Crystal PalaceatLeeds United | 0.0 | -1.5 | +1.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 41% | +145 | +216 |
| Sun 9:00a | SunderlandatManchester City | -1.6 | -2.5 | +0.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 64% | -178 | +661 |
| Sun 11:30a | Manchester UnitedatFulham | -0.3 | -1.5 | +1.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 33% | +206 | +153 |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The model's expected combined score. The market column beside it is the consensus book line when this version was published.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no margin built in, for the home side and the away side.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
Want the whole board, every week, in your own spreadsheet? The 4-week pilot gives you every game on this board as a file, a live link, an API and an email. It continues as the monthly licence from day 28 unless you cancel before then.
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