EFL Championship model board
Live 1 games · Fri 30 Oct · version 1 · updated Fri 23 Oct, 10:01 pm ET
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 4:00p | Wrexham AFCatSheffield United | -0.3 | — | — | 2.6 | 2.5 | 43% | +131 | +225 |
Versions this week
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 4:00p | AFC at United | Both teams to score | No | — | 43% | +134 |
| Fri 4:00p | AFC at United | Draw no bet | Sheffield United | — | 54% | -120 |
| Fri 4:00p | AFC at United | Moneyline | Sheffield United | — | 37% | +170 |
| Fri 4:00p | AFC at United | 3-way moneyline | Sheffield United | — | 37% | +170 |
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:30a | Norwich CityatCharlton Athletic | +0.1 | +0.5 | -0.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 29% | +244 | +131 |
| Sat 7:30a | MillwallatPortsmouth | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 38% | +162 | +201 |
| Sat 7:30a | Derby CountyatSheffield United | -0.4 | -0.5 | +0.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 53% | -113 | +353 |
| Sat 10:00a | West Bromwich AlbionatPreston North End | +0.1 | +0.5 | -0.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 27% | +276 | +115 |
| Sat 10:00a | SouthamptonatWest Ham United | -0.3 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 56% | -129 | +373 |
| Sat 10:00a | Wrexham AFCatBlackburn Rovers | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 35% | +188 | +178 |
| Sat 10:00a | Bristol CityatStoke City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 39% | +157 | +211 |
| Sat 10:00a | WatfordatWolverhampton Wanderers | -0.8 | -1.5 | +0.7 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 69% | -225 | +744 |
| Sat 10:00a | Swansea CityatQueens Park Rangers | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 38% | +161 | +197 |
| Sat 10:00a | Birmingham CityatCardiff City | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 35% | +187 | +151 |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The combined score we expect. The Market column beside it is the bookmakers' average number when this version went out.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no bookmaker margin (the cut a bookmaker keeps), for both sides.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
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