Bet Better Data / Boards / College football (FBS)

College football (FBS) model board

Live 40 games · week 6 · version 10 of 10 · updated Wed 7 Oct, 2:03 pm ET

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This week  ·  every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v10 · 16 min agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
Kick (ET)GameSpread (home)MarketGapTotalMarketHome winFair price · homeFair price · away
Wed 7:00p Jacksonville State GamecocksatKennesaw State Owls -0.5+3-3.3 53.548.5 25%+301-301
Wed 7:30p New Mexico State AggiesatFlorida International Panthers -13.5-6.5-7.0 4246.5 50%-100+100
Thu 7:00p Sam Houston State BearkatsatLiberty Flames -11.5-13.5+1.8 50.552.5 91%-1068+1068
Thu 7:00p Missouri State BearsatWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers -1-2.5+1.7 58.556.5 77%-335+335
Thu 7:30p South Alabama JaguarsatArkansas State Red Wolves +1-1.5+2.7 53.558.5 74%-286+286
Thu 7:30p South Florida BullsatUTSA Roadrunners -4-7+3.2 5650 82%-457+457
Fri 7:00p Florida State SeminolesatLouisville Cardinals 34 more games with every column in the pilot · open the full board
Fri 9:00p Wyoming CowboysatSan Jose State Spartans ·····
Fri 9:00p Washington State CougarsatUtah State Aggies ·····
Fri 9:00p Iowa HawkeyesatWashington Huskies ·····
Fri 10:15p Iowa State CyclonesatBYU Cougars ·····
Sat 12:00p Tulane Green WaveatArmy Black Knights ·····
Sat 12:00p Sacramento State HornetsatBowling Green Falcons ·····
Sat 12:00p Texas A&M AggiesatMissouri Tigers ·····
Sat 12:00p Wake Forest Demon DeaconsatNC State Wolfpack ·····
Sat 12:00p Indiana HoosiersatNebraska Cornhuskers ·····
Sat 12:00p UCF KnightsatOklahoma State Cowboys ·····
Sat 12:00p North Carolina Tar HeelsatPittsburgh Panthers ·····
Sat 12:00p Arizona WildcatsatWest Virginia Mountaineers ·····
Sat 12:30p Ball State CardinalsatNorthwestern Wildcats ·····
Sat 12:45p South Carolina GamecocksatFlorida Gators ·····
Sat 1:00p Old Dominion MonarchsatAppalachian State Mountaineers ·····
Sat 2:00p Miami (OH) RedHawksatUMass Minutemen ·····
Sat 3:30p Eastern Michigan EaglesatAkron Zips ·····
Sat 3:30p Virginia Tech HokiesatCalifornia Golden Bears ·····
Sat 3:30p Duke Blue DevilsatGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ·····
Sat 3:30p Houston CougarsatKansas State Wildcats ·····
Sat 3:30p Illinois Fighting IlliniatMichigan State Spartans ·····
Sat 3:30p Tulsa Golden HurricaneatNavy Midshipmen ·····
Sat 3:30p Charlotte 49ersatNorth Texas Mean Green ·····
Sat 3:30p Stanford CardinalatNotre Dame Fighting Irish ·····
Sat 3:30p Central Michigan ChippewasatOhio Bobcats ·····
Sat 3:30p Texas LonghornsatOklahoma Sooners ·····
Sat 3:30p UCLA BruinsatOregon Ducks ·····
Sat 3:30p Buffalo BullsatToledo Rockets ·····
Sat 3:30p Ole Miss RebelsatVanderbilt Commodores ·····
Sat 3:30p Kent State Golden FlashesatWestern Michigan Broncos ·····
Sat 3:45p UConn HuskiesatTemple Owls ·····
Sat 4:00p Rice OwlsatEast Carolina Pirates ·····
Sat 4:15p Tennessee VolunteersatArkansas Razorbacks ·····
Spread and total are the model's lines; Market is the consensus book line when this version was published; Gap = ours minus market. Fair price = the odds that would be a fair bet at our win chance, no margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.

Versions this week

The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.

v10Wed 7 Oct, 2:03 pm ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 40 calibrated / 0 model · 40 games
v9Wed 7 Oct, 2:02 am ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 39 calibrated / 1 model · 40 games
v8Tue 6 Oct, 2:02 pm ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 40 calibrated / 0 model · 40 games
v7Tue 6 Oct, 2:02 am ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 40 calibrated / 0 model · 40 games
v6Mon 5 Oct, 2:02 pm ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 40 calibrated / 0 model · 40 games
v5Mon 5 Oct, 10:20 am ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 40 calibrated / 0 model · 40 games
v4Mon 5 Oct, 3:08 am ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 40 calibrated / 0 model · 40 games
v3Sun 4 Oct, 2:01 pm ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 16 calibrated / 24 model · 40 games
v2Sun 4 Oct, 2:01 am ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 17 calibrated / 5 model · 22 games
v1Sun 4 Oct, 1:26 am ETOpening board | served 0 blended / 0 calibrated / 18 model · 18 games
Player props this week  ·  202 players · 390 markets across 21 games · our projection at the main line
v6 · 14 min agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
Kick (ET)PlayerMarketLineOur projectionOver chanceFair overFair underMarket over
Wed 7:00p Brayden MunroeGamecocks at Owls Receptions 2.54.488%-719+719-147
Wed 7:00p Deondre JohnsonGamecocks at Owls Receptions 3.54.676%-311+311+134
Wed 7:00p Caden CreelGamecocks at Owls Passing yards 207.5220.668%-212+212-114
Wed 7:00p Jalen LikelyGamecocks at Owls Rushing yards 30.537.968%-209+209-116
Wed 7:00p Caden CreelGamecocks at Owls Completions 16.517.567%-204+204-120
Wed 7:00p Rickie CollinsGamecocks at Owls Rushing yards 40.543.958%-140+140-119
Wed 7:00p Darius CannonGamecocks at Owls Receptions 384 more player markets in the pilot · open the full board
Wed 7:00p Rickie CollinsGamecocks at Owls Passing yards ·····
Wed 7:00p Brayden MunroeGamecocks at Owls Receiving yards ·····
Wed 7:00p Caden CreelGamecocks at Owls Rushing yards ·····
Wed 7:00p Darius CannonGamecocks at Owls Receiving yards ·····
Wed 7:00p Javon RogersGamecocks at Owls Receiving yards ·····
Wed 7:00p Caden CreelGamecocks at Owls Passing TDs ·····
Wed 7:00p Deondre JohnsonGamecocks at Owls Receiving yards ·····
Wed 7:00p Rickie CollinsGamecocks at Owls Passing TDs ·····
Wed 7:30p Maguire AndersonAggies at Panthers Receptions ·····
Wed 7:30p James ResarAggies at Panthers Receptions ·····
Wed 7:30p Anthony CarrieAggies at Panthers Rushing yards ·····
Wed 7:30p JoJo StoneAggies at Panthers Receptions ·····
Wed 7:30p Tyson CarterAggies at Panthers Receptions ·····
Wed 7:30p Josiah ThomasAggies at Panthers Receptions ·····
Wed 7:30p Tyson CarterAggies at Panthers Receiving yards ·····
Wed 7:30p James JonesAggies at Panthers Rushing yards ·····
Wed 7:30p Anthony CarrieAggies at Panthers Rushing TDs ·····
Wed 7:30p Jackson VerdugoAggies at Panthers Receiving yards ·····
Wed 7:30p James JonesAggies at Panthers Rushing TDs ·····
Wed 7:30p James ResarAggies at Panthers Receiving yards ·····
Wed 7:30p James JonesAggies at Panthers Rush attempts ·····
Wed 7:30p Maguire AndersonAggies at Panthers Receiving yards ·····
Wed 7:30p JoJo StoneAggies at Panthers Receiving yards ·····
360 more player markets are in the props file with the pilot. Projection = our model's expected value for the stat; Over chance = our probability the player clears the line; fair prices carry no margin. Under chance, market under price, uncertainty and every version are in the props file.Player props come with every board licence at no extra cost.
Game markets this week  ·  3 market types · 224 main lines across 40 games · team totals, halves, quarters and more, priced by our model
v40 · 59 min agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
Kick (ET)GameMarketSideLineOur chanceFair priceMarket price
Wed 7:00p Gamecocks at Owls Spread Kennesaw State Owls 2.545%+120+100
Wed 7:00p Gamecocks at Owls Spread Kennesaw State Owls 346%+119-110
Wed 7:00p Gamecocks at Owls Total Over 48.557%-133-125
Wed 7:00p Gamecocks at Owls Total Over 49.556%-129-108
Wed 7:00p Gamecocks at Owls Total Over 5056%-128-109
Wed 7:00p Gamecocks at Owls Moneyline Kennesaw State Owls —25%+305+126
Wed 7:30p Aggies at Panthers Spread Florida International Panthers 218 more main lines and every alternate in the pilot · open the full board
Wed 7:30p Aggies at Panthers Total Under ·····
Wed 7:30p Aggies at Panthers Total Under ·····
Wed 7:30p Aggies at Panthers Moneyline Florida International Panthers ·····
Thu 7:00p Bearkats at Flames Spread Sam Houston State Bearkats ·····
Thu 7:00p Bearkats at Flames Total Under ·····
Thu 7:00p Bearkats at Flames Moneyline Sam Houston State Bearkats ·····
Thu 7:00p Bears at Hilltoppers Spread Missouri State Bears ·····
Thu 7:00p Bears at Hilltoppers Spread Missouri State Bears ·····
Thu 7:00p Bears at Hilltoppers Total Over ·····
Thu 7:00p Bears at Hilltoppers Total Over ·····
Thu 7:00p Bears at Hilltoppers Moneyline Missouri State Bears ·····
Thu 7:30p Jaguars at Wolves Spread South Alabama Jaguars ·····
Thu 7:30p Jaguars at Wolves Spread South Alabama Jaguars ·····
Thu 7:30p Jaguars at Wolves Total Under ·····
Thu 7:30p Jaguars at Wolves Total Under ·····
Thu 7:30p Jaguars at Wolves Moneyline South Alabama Jaguars ·····
Thu 7:30p Bulls at Roadrunners Spread South Florida Bulls ·····
Thu 7:30p Bulls at Roadrunners Spread South Florida Bulls ·····
Thu 7:30p Bulls at Roadrunners Total Over ·····
Thu 7:30p Bulls at Roadrunners Total Over ·····
Thu 7:30p Bulls at Roadrunners Total Over ·····
Thu 7:30p Bulls at Roadrunners Moneyline South Florida Bulls ·····
Fri 7:00p Seminoles at Cardinals Spread Florida State Seminoles ·····
194 more main lines and every alternate line are in the markets file with the pilot. Our chance = the model's probability this side wins at this line; fair price carries no margin; market price is the consensus across books at publish. Alternate lines, the projection behind each market and every version are in the markets file.Game markets come with every board licence at no extra cost.
Last week, in full  ·  the final version of every game, free · week 6
CSVExcelJSON
Kick (ET)GameSpread (home)MarketGapTotalMarketHome winFair price · homeFair price · away
Tue 8:00p Southern Mississippi Golden EaglesatTroy Trojans -9.5-10+0.6 51.551.5 92%-1144+1144
1 games · final version of each game before kickoff. Graded results and the closing-line comparison are in the free ledger and metrics files.

How to read the board

Spread (home)

The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.

Total

The model's expected combined score. The market column beside it is the consensus book line when this version was published.

Home win and fair price

Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no margin built in, for the home side and the away side.

Gap

Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.

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