Bundesliga model board
Live 6 games · next 7 days · version 8 of 13 · updated Fri 23 Oct, 10:00 pm ET
Next 7 days · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v8 · 2 days ago
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10:30a | SC FreiburgatAugsburg | -0.2 | — | — | 3.4 | — | 31% | +218 | +129 |
| Sat 10:30a | VfB StuttgartatBayer Leverkusen | -1.3 | — | — | 3.8 | — | 53% | -112 | +300 |
| Sat 10:30a | RB LeipzigatFC Schalke 04 | +0.5 | — | — | 3.5 | — | 25% | +300 | +100 |
| Sat 10:30a | TSG HoffenheimatWerder Bremen | +0.2 | — | — | 3.5 | — | 32% | +210 | +130 |
| Sat 1:30p | Borussia DortmundatBayern Munich | -1.6 | — | — | 4.3 | — | 70% | -236 | +654 |
| Sun 11:30a | Hamburger SVatEintracht Frankfurt | -0.5 | — | — | 3.5 | — | 56% | -128 | +354 |
Spread and total are our numbers. Market is the bookmakers' average number when this version went out. Gap is ours minus theirs. Fair price is the odds that would be fair at our win chance, with no bookmaker margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions by day
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v8Sat 31 Oct · Fri 23 Oct, 10:00 pm ETRefresh · 5 games
v7Sat 31 Oct · Thu 22 Oct, 10:09 pm ETRefresh · 5 games
v6Sat 31 Oct · Thu 22 Oct, 4:58 am ETRefresh · 5 games
v5Sat 31 Oct · Wed 21 Oct, 9:59 pm ETRefresh · 5 games
v5Sun 1 Nov · Thu 22 Oct, 10:09 pm ETRefresh · 1 games
v4Sat 31 Oct · Tue 20 Oct, 9:50 pm ETRefresh · 5 games
v4Sun 1 Nov · Wed 21 Oct, 9:59 pm ETRefresh · 1 games
v3Sat 31 Oct · Tue 20 Oct, 4:12 am ETRefresh · 5 games
v3Sun 1 Nov · Tue 20 Oct, 9:50 pm ETRefresh · 1 games
v2Sat 31 Oct · Mon 19 Oct, 9:45 pm ETRefresh · 5 games
v2Sun 1 Nov · Tue 20 Oct, 4:12 am ETRefresh · 1 games
v1Sat 31 Oct · Mon 19 Oct, 4:23 am ETOpening board · 5 games
v1Sun 1 Nov · Mon 19 Oct, 4:23 am ETOpening board · 1 games
Game markets this week · 6 market types · 79 main lines across 6 games · team totals, halves, quarters and more, priced by our model
v15 · 2 days agofirst 6 open · rest in the feed
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Spread | Augsburg | 0 | 47% | +112 |
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Spread | Augsburg | 0.2 | 55% | -121 |
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Spread | Augsburg | 0.5 | 62% | -166 |
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Spread | Augsburg | 0.8 | 71% | -250 |
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Total | Under | 2.5 | 36% | +175 |
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Total | Under | 3.5 | 59% | -146 |
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Total | Under | 73 more main lines and every alternate in the feed · choose your leagues | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Both teams to score | No | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Draw no bet | Augsburg | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | Moneyline | Augsburg | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Freiburg at Augsburg | 3-way moneyline | Augsburg | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Spread | Bayer Leverkusen | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Spread | Bayer Leverkusen | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Spread | Bayer Leverkusen | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Spread | Bayer Leverkusen | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Total | Over | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Total | Over | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Draw no bet | Bayer Leverkusen | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | Moneyline | Bayer Leverkusen | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Stuttgart at Leverkusen | 3-way moneyline | Bayer Leverkusen | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Leipzig at 04 | Spread | RB Leipzig | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Leipzig at 04 | Spread | RB Leipzig | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Leipzig at 04 | Spread | RB Leipzig | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Leipzig at 04 | Spread | RB Leipzig | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Leipzig at 04 | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Sat 10:30a | Leipzig at 04 | Total | Under | ····· | ||
49 more main lines and every alternate line are in the markets file with the feed. Our chance is how likely this side wins at this number. Fair price has no bookmaker margin. Alternate lines, the projection behind each market and every version are in the markets file.Other game bets come with every league you buy, at no extra cost.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 10:30a | Bayer LeverkusenatTSG Hoffenheim | +0.1 | +0.5 | -0.4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 33% | +206 | +129 |
| Sun 12:30p | Bayern MunichatSC Freiburg | +0.5 | +1.0 | -0.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 15% | +553 | -203 |
2 games · each game as we last published it before its kick-off.
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The combined score we expect. The Market column beside it is the bookmakers' average number when this version went out.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no bookmaker margin (the cut a bookmaker keeps), for both sides.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
Want the whole board, every week, in your own spreadsheet? The Predictions feed gives you every game on this board as a file, a live link, an API and a webhook. Pay monthly or yearly and cancel any time.