The vast majority of bettors lose because they try to predict the future. Professional bettors win because they identify price discrepancies. This concept is called "Edge."
Answer-first
A Positive Edge (or +EV) exists when the true probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. If you consistently bet on outcomes with a positive edge, the law of large numbers dictates you will profit over time.
Probability vs Odds
Every betting line implies a probability. To find edge, you must compare the market's opinion (the odds) against reality (your calculated probability).
FINDING THE GAP
Bookmaker Odds: 2.50 (+150) -> Implied Probability: 40%
Your Model's Probability: 50%
> Result: You are buying a 50% chance for the price of a 40% chance. This is a massive edge.
Calculating Expected Value (EV)
EV tells you exactly how much money you can expect to win or lose per bet on average.
EV FORMULA
EV = (Probability of Winning * Profit) - (Probability of Losing * Stake)
If EV is positive (e.g., +$5.00), the bet is profitable in the long run, even if it loses today.
The Coin Flip Analogy
Imagine a fair coin toss (50/50 chance).
If a friend offered you $110 for every Heads, and you only had to pay $100 for every Tails, you would take that bet forever. You would lose sometimes, but eventually, you would bankrupt your friend.
That is Positive Edge.
The Role of Data
You cannot find edge by "feeling" it. You need superior information.
Bet Better uses actuarial data science and AI simulations to generate "True Probabilities" that are more accurate than the sportsbooks, exposing their pricing errors.
FAQ
Can I lose money betting with a positive edge?
Yes, in the short term. This is called "variance." However, over a large sample size (1,000+ bets), a positive edge strategy creates a predictable upward trend.
How much edge is enough?
Professional bettors often work with edges as small as 2% to 5%. It doesn't sound like much, but compounded daily, the ROI is significant.