The fastest way to improve your betting results is to stop making the mistakes that quietly drain bankrolls.
This guide covers the most common pitfalls and gives you a simple rules-based framework to avoid them, using data over emotion.
Chasing Losses (Tilt Betting)
Definition: Chasing losses means increasing stake size after a loss to “win it back” quickly.
It turns normal variance into catastrophic drawdowns.
How to avoid it: Use fixed units (commonly 1% to 2% of bankroll) and apply a hard rule: stake size never changes because of the last result.
Risk pattern
Standard Bet: $20 (2% of bankroll)
Controlled: Lose $20 → next bet still $20
Chasing: Lose $20 → bet $40 → lose → bet $80…
> The goal is survivability. Survive variance, then compound edge.
Pre-commit
Write your unit size once and don’t change it mid-week.
Stop-loss rule
If you feel emotional, pause betting for the day. Emotion is a signal, not an input.
Process focus
Judge a bet by expected value, not outcome. A good bet can lose. A bad bet can win.
Betting Without Analysis
Sportsbooks price markets using sophisticated models. Betting on “feel”, fandom, or headlines is usually donating margin.
How to avoid it: Base bets on probabilities, matchup context, and market price. If you don’t have a reason you can explain in one paragraph, skip the bet.
Helpful references on Bet Better:
AI probability methodology and
value betting (+EV).
Overbetting Favorites (The “Safe Pick” Trap)
Favorites win more often, but their odds are priced so you need a high hit rate to break even.
The market is not rewarding you for being “right”; it rewards you for being mispriced.
Example
Odds: 1.25 (implied 80%)
One loss can wipe out multiple wins.
> Instead of chasing certainty, chase value: probability minus implied probability.
Poor Bankroll Management
Definition: Bankroll management is the system you use to size bets so variance does not wipe you out.
How to avoid it: Keep stakes consistent, avoid “all-in” thinking, and treat betting like a portfolio.
If you want a simple baseline, many disciplined bettors use 1% to 2% per bet.
See: Responsible Gambling.
Betting on Everything
Betting more does not mean earning more. It often means lower selectivity and lower quality decisions.
How to avoid it: Specialize in leagues you understand, or follow filtered markets where you have a clear edge.
If you want a “signal-only” workflow, use pages like Best Bets to reduce noise.
Not Tracking Results (No Feedback Loop)
If you don’t track bets, you can’t improve. The goal is to learn what markets, bet types, and prices you perform best in.
How to avoid it: Track date, market, odds, stake, and closing line movement. Review weekly. Small improvements compound fast.
Conclusion: Fix the Leaks First
Winning long-term is less about finding a magic system and more about eliminating the behaviours that destroy bankrolls.
Use fixed staking, focus on value, and keep a feedback loop. That’s how betting becomes disciplined and repeatable.
FAQ
What is the biggest mistake new sports bettors make?
Chasing losses. It increases stake size based on emotion, which magnifies variance and can wipe out a bankroll quickly.
How do I stop chasing losses when betting?
Use a fixed unit size and a hard rule: never increase stake because the last bet lost. If you feel tilted, pause for the day.
Why is betting on favorites often unprofitable?
Because the odds are priced so the break-even win rate is extremely high. Profit comes from value, not from being correct most often.