Villarreal vs Mallorca: Mallorca +4.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Mallorca with a 4.5 handicap is a strong choice based on Villarreal's recent performance. Villarreal's average goal score over their last five games is only 1, with an expected goal (xG) average of 1.5. This suggests they are not significantly outperforming their expectations. Furthermore, their record against Mallorca is not dominant (3-1-1). On the other hand, Mallorca's away performance is weak, with an average score of 0.4 and an xG of 0.9. However, with a 4.5 goal head start, Mallorca only needs to prevent a blowout to cover the handicap. Given Villarreal's modest scoring record, it's statistically unlikely they will overcome this handicap. Therefore, this bet offers a solid opportunity for a return.
Villarreal vs Mallorca: Draw Moneyline (+360)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on a 'Draw' is based on the recent performance data of both teams. Villarreal's last five home games show a balanced record of 2-2-1, indicating they've had difficulty securing wins. Their average goal score is also equal to the average goals conceded, which points to a propensity for draws. Mallorca's away record is even weaker (0-2-3), and they've struggled to score, averaging 0.4 goals per game. Their previous encounters also suggest a draw is likely, with Villarreal winning three times, Mallorca once, and one draw. Both teams' xG (expected goals) stats are also closely matched, suggesting a similar level of attack efficiency. In essence, Villarreal's inconsistent home performance and Mallorca's poor away form, coupled with balanced scoring records, make a draw a reasonable outcome.
Villarreal vs Mallorca: Draw Moneyline (+360)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The draw bet for the Villarreal vs Mallorca match is a reasonable choice based on the recent performance data of both teams. Villarreal's home records show a tendency towards draws, with two draws in their last five home games. Similarly, Mallorca has drawn three of their last five away games. Furthermore, both teams have an average score of 1 in their recent games, indicating a similar level of scoring ability. This is reinforced by the xG (expected goals) data, which is also similar for both teams. The defensive stats, indicated by opponent xG, also suggest that both teams are roughly equally matched in terms of preventing goals. These factors combined suggest a high likelihood of a draw outcome in this match.
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