Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Tuesday 10/21 (Amen Thompson Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

The bet on Draymond Green for Under 5.5 assists in the Lakers vs Warriors game is strongly supported by recent and overall statistical trends. Green's average assists over his last five games, both overall and away, is 4.6, which is below the betting threshold of 5.5. This suggests that his recent performance is more likely to result in fewer assists. Moreover, his expected stat value for this game is 4.18, again under 5.5. Furthermore, Green's overall hit rate for under 5.5 assists in his last 20 games is 75% (15/20), and his away hit rate for the last 10 games is 80% (8/10). Despite his average assists against the Lakers being higher, the recent and overall trends strongly indicate that Green is more likely to have fewer than 5.5 assists in this game.

Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets) Under 1.5 Blocks (-204)

The bet on Amen Thompson for under 1.5 blocks in the game between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder is primarily supported by Thompson's recent performance data. He has averaged 1 block per game overall in the last 5 games and just 1 block in his last 5 away games. Furthermore, his performance against the Thunder is even lower, with an average of 0.6 blocks in the last 5 games and 0.5 blocks in the last 5 away games against the Thunder. Additionally, Thompson's hit rate has been consistent, with 7 out of the last 8 games and all of the last 3 away games coming in under 1.5 blocks. These statistics indicate that it is more likely than not that Thompson will have under 1.5 blocks in this game.

Steven Adams (Memphis Grizzlies) Under 13.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)

The under bet for Steven Adams at 13.5 points + rebounds is supported by his recent performance statistics. Adams' average points and rebounds in the last five overall games are 6.6 and 6.2 respectively, which totals 12.8 - still under the 13.5 line. His performance does not significantly improve when playing away, with averages of 7.2 points and 6.6 rebounds. When specifically playing against the Oklahoma City Thunder, his averages fall to 5.4 points and 5.6 rebounds. Even when playing away against the Thunder, his combined points and rebounds only amount to 11. The trend is further corroborated by his hit rate, with 8 out of his last 10 away games falling below the 13.5 line. This evidence suggests that it is statistically plausible for Adams to score under 13.5 points + rebounds in the upcoming game.

Steven Adams (Houston Rockets) Under 13.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)

Betting on the under for Steven Adams in points + rebounds seems reasonable considering his recent performance. His average points and rebounds in the last five overall games stand at 6.6 and 6.2 respectively, totaling 12.8, which is less than the target of 13.5. Looking specifically at away games, his averages are slightly higher at 7.2 points and 6.6 rebounds, but still fall under the 13.5 mark. His performance against the Thunder further supports this bet, as his average points and rebounds against this team are 5.4 and 5.6 respectively, quite lower than the proposed outcome point. Furthermore, his hit rate for the last four overall games and last ten away games are 75% and 80% respectively, showing a consistent performance under the proposed outcome point. Therefore, given Adams' current form, this bet seems fairly justified.

Reed Sheppard (Houston Rockets) Under 8.5 Points (-133)

The under 8.5 points bet for Reed Sheppard in the game between the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder is primarily backed by Sheppard's recent performance metrics. His average points in the last five games overall is just 2.8, significantly below the 8.5 threshold. Even when considering his away game statistics, his average drops to 8 points, still below the line. Although Sheppard's average points against this specific opponent are at 8.5, this figure is likely inflated by a few strong performances, as indicated by the higher average of 14.5 points in away games against this opponent. The hit rate, which reflects how often this bet would have been successful in the past, also supports this pick. The overall hit rate in the last four games is 100% (4/4) and the hit rate in the last 20 away games is a robust 80% (16/20).