Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Monday 03/16 (Gary Payton II Highlights): Best Value Bets

As the Kings gear up to host the Jazz, DeMar DeRozan stands out as a prime candidate to snag over 2.5 rebounds. Looking at his current form, he's averaging a solid 4.4 boards over the last five games, and against Utah, he's been even more effective, pulling down 4.4 rebounds per game historically. Being at home typically boosts his performance, too-he's hit the over in 15 of his last 20 home games. The Kings will likely rely on DeRozan not just for scoring but also for securing possessions against a Jazz team that can struggle on the boards. With his recent hit rate at a perfect 5-for-5 in his last outings, it feels like a no-brainer to back him to clear that low bar of 2.5 rebounds. With odds favoring this bet, I'm feeling confident that DeRozan will deliver when it counts.

DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) Over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (-143)

DeMar DeRozan is primed for a standout performance as the Kings host the Jazz. With a current line of 7.5 for combined rebounds and assists, the numbers suggest he's more than capable of surpassing that mark. Over his last five games, DeRozan has averaged 4.4 rebounds and 4 assists, but at home, those numbers jump to 3.4 boards and an impressive 5.8 assists. Against the Jazz, he's historically found his rhythm, averaging 6.2 assists in their last five matchups. Plus, he's hit the combined mark in three of his last four games overall and has a perfect 3-for-3 at home recently. The Kings will lean on him to facilitate and rebound as they look to cement their home-court advantage. Given his consistent contributions and the favorable matchup, taking the over on DeRozan's rebounding and assist total feels like a solid play.

Brice Sensabaugh (Utah Jazz) Under 2.5 Assists (-179)

When the Utah Jazz go head-to-head with the Sacramento Kings, all eyes will be on Brice Sensabaugh, but betting on the under for his assists might be the smart play. Sensabaugh has been averaging 1.8 assists in his last five games, and while his away average jumps to 2.8, it's crucial to note that he's only managed 1.2 assists against the Jazz historically. Even when playing away, his numbers against this specific opponent have been underwhelming, sitting at 2.5 assists on average. Given that he's hit the under in 8 of his last 9 games, and has been perfect in his last three away contests, it seems the odds are stacked in favor of a subdued performance here. With an expected stat value of 1.63, targeting the under at 2.5 assists feels like a savvy move for this matchup.

Gary Payton II (Golden State Warriors) Under 6.5 Rebounds (-1250)

When the Golden State Warriors face off against the New York Knicks, all eyes will be on Gary Payton II, but betting on him to grab over 6.5 rebounds feels like a risky play. Payton has been consistent lately, but his numbers tell a different story. Averaging just 2 rebounds across his last five games, and even lower on the road at 1.6, it's clear he's been more of a perimeter player than a glass cleaner. Against the Knicks, he's historically managed only 2 boards, even in away games. With a perfect 20-for-20 trend hitting the under in his last outings, including a flawless 8-for-8 on the road, it's hard to see him suddenly breaking through that 6.5 ceiling. As the Warriors look to settle into their groove, don't expect Payton to be the one crashing the boards. Bet the under and feel confident in this trend holding strong.