Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 03/12 (Moussa Diabate Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

As the Charlotte Hornets gear up to face the Sacramento Kings, eyes should be on Moussa Diabate, specifically for the under on his assists prop at 2.5. Diabate has been quietly effective in his role, but recent trends suggest he may struggle to hit that mark tonight. Averaging just 1 assist in his last five games-and 1.2 when playing away-he's clearly not a primary playmaker. Against the Kings, his historical data is telling: in their previous matchups, he hasn't recorded a single assist. With an impressive 14 out of 15 hit rate for the under in his last 15 games, and 18 of 20 when away, it seems that the odds are stacked against him tonight. Given these insights, betting the under on Diabate's assists feels like a savvy play as he likely finds himself more focused on defense than playmaking in this matchup.

Tobias Harris (Detroit Pistons) Over 11.5 Points (-132)

As we look ahead to the clash between the Detroit Pistons and the Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris stands out as a strong candidate to surpass the 11.5 points mark. Playing at home, he's been a force, averaging 14.4 points in his last five games on his own court. Even more compelling is his recent form against the 76ers, where he's averaged 14.7 points in their last matchups. With a perfect hit rate of 3 for 3 in his last outings, and an impressive 12 out of 13 at home, Harris is clearly thriving in familiar surroundings. The implied probability of 56.8% suggests that the odds are leaning in his favor, and with an expected stat value of nearly 15 points, this bet feels like a solid investment. Expect Harris to rise to the occasion and deliver when it matters most.

Marcus Sasser (Detroit Pistons) Under 2.5 Rebounds (-189)

When the Pistons take on the 76ers, all eyes might be on the stars, but let's hone in on Marcus Sasser. The numbers suggest that targeting the under on his rebounds at 2.5 makes a lot of sense. Over the last five games, Sasser has averaged just 0.6 boards, and at home, that number dips even further to 0.4. Against the 76ers, he's managed only 1 rebound per game historically, and at home, it's slightly better at 0.8. What's even more compelling is his recent streak; he's gone under this total in his last 11 appearances, including all 7 of his home games. The pressure of the matchup against a dominant Philadelphia squad is likely to limit his opportunities on the glass. With a hit rate that's been flawless lately, backing the under feels like the smart play as the Pistons look to carve out a win.

Miles Bridges (Charlotte Hornets) Over 18.5 Points + Assists (-125)

As the Charlotte Hornets face off against the Sacramento Kings, all eyes should be on Miles Bridges to step up and deliver. When he hits the road, Bridges has been particularly electrifying, averaging 22.8 points and 5 assists over his last five away games. He's not just scoring; he's exploiting matchups, especially against the Kings, where he has historically averaged nearly 25 points per game. Consider this: Bridges has hit the over on 18.5 points plus assists in 15 out of his last 18 away games, demonstrating an impressive consistency. In the last 20 games overall, he's converted this bet 80% of the time. With the Kings' defense struggling to contain versatile scorers, expect Bridges to not only find his rhythm but also to exceed that 18.5 mark comfortably. This matchup could be another showcase of his offensive prowess-don't miss out!

Bennedict Mathurin (Indiana Pacers) Under 2.5 Assists (-196)

As we gear up for the Clippers vs. Timberwolves showdown, Bennedict Mathurin's assist total is a tempting target for an under bet. Mathurin has been averaging just 1.2 assists over his last five games, and even at home, that number only nudges up slightly to 1.4. When facing Minnesota, he's logged an average of 1.6 assists, which isn't quite enough to inspire confidence for a 2.5 line. Looking deeper, against teams in his recent matchups, he's hit this under in 19 out of his last 20 games-an impressive 95% success rate. The Timberwolves are also limiting opposing guards to an average of just 2 assists, reinforcing the idea that Mathurin may struggle to find his teammates for easy buckets. With those trends and the stakes of this game, targeting the under on 2.5 assists for Mathurin feels like a savvy play.