Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies : Miami Heat Under 144.5 Team Total Points (-909)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on 'Miami Heat Under 144.5' is a solid choice given the team's recent scoring trends. Over their last five games, Miami Heat's average total points is 121.4, well under the 144.5 threshold. Even at home games, where they tend to score higher, their average is 123.4 points. Furthermore, the model prediction suggests an even lower score of 105.35 for the Heat. The Grizzlies defense could also limit the Heat's scoring. In the last five games, the average score of the Heat's opponents was 110.4, and 120 at home games. This further supports the likelihood of the Heat scoring under 144.5. These stats combined with the high implied probability of 90.1% make this bet a reasonable choice.

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies : Under 264.5 Total Points (-278)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting choice of 'Under 264.5' for the Total Points in the Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies game is rooted in both teams' recent scoring trends. Even at their highest-scoring recent games, the Heat averaged 123.4 points at home and the Grizzlies averaged 119.6 points away. Combined, this falls well short of the 264.5 total points mark. Furthermore, the model prediction is significantly lower at 214.33 points, providing a considerable buffer. Additionally, both teams have shown solid defensive performances, with the Heat limiting opponents to 120 points at home and the Grizzlies to 122.8 points away. This implies a lower-scoring game than the total points set. These stats indicate that the total score is likely to be under 264.5, making this bet a statistically sound decision.

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies : Memphis Grizzlies 10.5 (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Memphis Grizzlies are a strong bet at a 10.5 point spread due to their consistent scoring performance, regardless of their recent win-loss record. The Grizzlies have been averaging 118.8 points overall in the last 5 games, and 119.6 points in away games. This shows they have been able to maintain their scoring prowess on the road. On the other hand, the Miami Heat's defense at home seems to be a weakness, allowing an average of 120 points in the last 5 games. Despite the Heat's strong 4-1 home record, their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies' ability to keep the score close, coupled with the Heat's defensive inconsistencies, lends credence to the bet on Memphis to cover a 10.5 point spread.

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