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Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Prediction & Picks (EPL) (Jean-Philippe Mateta Key Factor): Winning Game Angles

January 04th | 06:24 PM GMT Read time icon 3 min read
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Prediction & Picks (EPL) (Jean-Philippe Mateta Key Factor): Winning Game Angles
Predictions

Expert analysis and top EPL betting picks for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa. Includes analysis on key players like Jean-Philippe Mateta. Discover EPL predictions, EPL game picks, soccer betting preview, Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa stats and odds.

Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+155)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jean-Philippe Mateta has a strong scoring record, particularly at home. Over the last five games, he has averaged 0.6 goals and 2 shots at home, with 1.2 of these shots being on target. This suggests that he is consistently getting into scoring positions and creating opportunities. Furthermore, his hit rate at home in the last four games is 75% (3/4), indicating a high probability of scoring. Despite his current hit streak being at zero, his overall hit rate in his last nine games is 66.67% (6/9), which is significantly higher than the implied probability of 39.2%. Therefore, betting on Mateta to score anytime during the Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa game is a good choice based on his strong home performance and high hit rate.

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa Moneyline (+135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Aston Villa as the match winner is based on their recent performance and head-to-head record against Crystal Palace. Both teams have similar recent form, however, Aston Villa has shown better scoring efficiency with an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches, equal to Crystal Palace, but with a lower expected goals (xG) of 1.16 against Palace's 2.22. This indicates that Villa is making the most of their opportunities. Furthermore, when playing away, Villa has maintained a decent scoring average of 1.4 goals per game. Additionally, their head-to-head record against Crystal Palace is balanced, which suggests that they have the ability to secure a win. Therefore, betting on Aston Villa as the match winner could be a viable option.

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa Moneyline (+135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Aston Villa's bet is a good choice based on their consistent performance. Both teams have a similar overall record (3-1-1), but Aston Villa has shown better performance in away games, which is crucial for this match. Their L5 overall score is 1.8, equal to Crystal Palace's, but their L5 away score is 1.4, which is higher than Crystal Palace's home score of 1.2. This indicates Aston Villa's strong offensive capabilities, even when playing away. Additionally, Aston Villa has a better record against Crystal Palace in their last five encounters (2-1-2), indicating a historical advantage. Although Crystal Palace has a higher xG (expected goals) average, Aston Villa's actual scoring has been on par, suggesting they can capitalize on their opportunities. Therefore, the bet on Aston Villa is a statistically sound choice.

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