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Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Prediction & Picks (EPL) : Stat-Based Insights

January 05th | 06:26 PM GMT Read time icon 3 min read
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Prediction & Picks (EPL) : Stat-Based Insights
Predictions

Deep dive into Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa EPL match. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Jean-Philippe Mateta. Check out EPL predictions, EPL game picks, soccer betting preview, Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa stats and odds.

Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+155)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jean-Philippe Mateta's performance data indicates a strong potential for scoring. In his last five overall games, he has averaged 0.8 goals, and at home, he averages 0.6 goals. This shows a consistent scoring ability, irrespective of the match location. Furthermore, his shot averages are also impressive with 2.2 overall and 2 at home, demonstrating a persistent offensive presence. His accuracy is also notable with an average of 1.4 shots on target overall and 1.2 at home. His past performance also supports this bet, with a hit rate of 6/9 overall and 3/4 at home. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his consistent past performance and high averages suggest a high likelihood of him scoring in the upcoming match.

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa Moneyline (+135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Aston Villa as the match winner is driven by their consistent performance both overall and against Crystal Palace. Both teams have identical records in their last five games (3-1-1), and against each other (2-1-2). However, Aston Villa has shown a stronger offensive performance, matching Crystal Palace's average score of 1.8, but doing so with fewer shots (8.8 vs 12), indicating a higher shot efficiency. Aston Villa also has a higher opponent score average (1.4 vs 0.8), suggesting they're used to playing in higher-scoring games. This is further supported by their higher opponent xG (2.16 vs 0.74), indicating they face tougher offensive opponents. Given these stats, Aston Villa's ability to score efficiently and their experience in high-scoring games, they are a solid bet to win the match.

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa Moneyline (+135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Aston Villa is a good choice based on the team's performance data. Both teams have similar recent records, but Aston Villa has shown a better scoring average in their last five games overall (1.8) compared to Crystal Palace's home record (1.6). This indicates a stronger offensive performance. Even though Aston Villa's expected goals (xG) are lower when playing away (0.86), Crystal Palace's opponent xG at home is higher (1.06), suggesting Aston Villa might have scoring opportunities. Additionally, Aston Villa's average Shots on Target (SoT) are equal to Crystal Palace's (3.8), implying equal chances of scoring. Furthermore, Aston Villa commits fewer fouls (8.4) away than Crystal Palace at home (9.8), which could result in fewer penalties and better game control. Therefore, these factors make Aston Villa a solid bet for the match result.

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