Most bettors ask "Who will win?" Value bettors ask "Is the price right?" This fundamental shift in mindset is what separates the long-term winners from the losers.
1. What is Value?
Imagine a coin flip (50% probability). If a bookmaker offered you +110 odds (implied 47.6%), that is value. You are paying for a 47% chance but getting a 50% chance.
[Image of coin flip probability vs betting odds value comparison]
2. The Value Equation
THE MATH
Your Model: 60% Win Probability
Bookmaker: -110 (52.4% Implied Probability)
Edge: 60% - 52.4% = 7.6% Edge.
This is a massive value bet.
3. How to Find Value
You cannot find value by guessing. You need superior information or analysis. This comes from Line Shopping (finding the best odds across books) or Origination (creating your own odds using data).
FAQ
Can I make money without Value Betting?
No. You might get lucky in the short term, but the "Vig" (bookmaker's fee) ensures that betting without an edge is a guaranteed mathematical loss over time.