In the NFL and NBA, teams are rarely equal. The point spread is the great equalizer—a handicap assigned by oddsmakers to level the playing field between the Favorite and the Underdog.
The Mechanics of the Handicap
Bookmakers assign a number (the spread) to balance the betting action.
SPREAD EXAMPLE
Chiefs (-6.5) vs Raiders (+6.5)
- If you bet Chiefs: They must win by 7 or more.
- If you bet Raiders: They can win OR lose by 6 or less.
Outcomes: Cover, No Cover, Push
There are three possible results for your bet:
- Cover: Your team performs better than the handicap. (e.g. Favorite wins by 10 on a -7 spread).
- No Cover: Your team fails to beat the handicap.
- Push: The result lands exactly on the number (e.g. Favorite wins by exactly 7 on a -7 spread). In this case, your bet is refunded.
The "Hook" (Why you see .5)
Oddsmakers often add a half-point (the "hook") to avoid Pushes. A spread of -7.5 forces a win or loss result, as teams cannot score half-points.
Buying the hook (moving a line from -7.5 to -7) is a common strategy in key numbers like 3 and 7 in football.
Finding Value
Success isn't guessing the winner; it's determining if the handicap is accurate.
Predictive models might show the Chiefs should be -10 favorites, not -6.5. That 3.5-point gap is your edge.
FAQ
What is ATS?
ATS stands for "Against The Spread." It refers to a team's record compared to the point spread, not their actual Win/Loss record.
What is standard "juice" on spreads?
Most spread bets are -110, meaning you risk $110 to win $100. This 10% vig is the bookmaker's fee.