1. What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to calculate the optimal size of a bet based on your edge and the odds being offered. It’s designed to maximize your capital growth over the long term while minimizing the chance of a total loss.
Simply put, the Kelly Criterion helps you determine how much of your bankroll to wager on any given bet when you have an advantage based on Bet Better's insights and bookmaker odds.
2. The Kelly Formula Explained
The Kelly Formula is:
f = (bp - q) / b
Where:
- f = the fraction of your bankroll to wager
- b = odds received on the bet (decimal odds - 1)
- p = probability of winning
- q = probability of losing (1 - p)
This formula helps you determine the most profitable bet size while protecting your bankroll from excessive losses.
3. Using the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting
Applying the Kelly Criterion in sports betting requires an accurate assessment of the probability of winning. Bet Better’s AI-powered analytics provide reliable probability estimates based on past performances, player trends, and real-time data. With these insights, you can calculate your optimal bet size using the Kelly Criterion.
With Bet Better’s tools, you can ensure your betting strategy is rooted in accurate data and a disciplined approach.
4. Managing Risk with the Kelly Criterion
Though the Kelly Criterion is mathematically optimal, some bettors prefer a more conservative approach. One common adaptation is to bet a fraction of the Kelly result (e.g., half-Kelly) to further reduce risk.
Bet Better’s bankroll management tools allow you to apply the Kelly Criterion while adjusting for your risk tolerance. Use these tools to calculate the right bet size without overextending your bankroll, ensuring a safe and effective strategy.
5. Long-Term Benefits of the Kelly Criterion
By consistently using the Kelly Criterion, you can maximize your returns over the long run. Even with short-term losses, this strategy ensures you’re not betting more than you can afford and helps grow your bankroll sustainably over time.
Bet Better’s comprehensive platform supports you in applying the Kelly Criterion effectively with probability estimates, real-time analytics, and bankroll management, giving you the tools you need for long-term success.