The 49ers and Rams meet in a divisional clash with plenty on the line. However, the 49ers enter this game with significant injury concerns, particularly along the offensive line and defensive front. Meanwhile, the Rams appear to be healthier and poised to exploit these weaknesses. Using insights from injury reports,
roster data, and advanced stats, we’ll break down what to expect in this Week 15 battle.
Key Matchups and Insights
1. 49ers’ Defense Faces Challenges Without Key Players
The 49ers are dealing with multiple defensive injuries that could shift the game in the Rams’ favor:
- Nick Bosa (DE): Questionable with a hip injury. Bosa leads the team in pressures and sacks, and his absence would leave a significant void in the pass rush.
- Dre Greenlaw (LB): Questionable with an Achilles issue. Greenlaw is a cornerstone of their run defense and critical in limiting the Rams’ ground game.
- Trent Williams (OL): Out with an ankle injury, his absence will expose the offensive line to additional pressure from the Rams’ pass rush.
These injuries give the Rams a chance to find success both in the air and on the ground, especially if Bosa and Greenlaw are unable to suit up.
2. Rams’ Strengths: Aaron Donald and a Healthy Roster
The Rams come into this matchup relatively injury-free, a significant advantage as they face a banged-up 49ers squad. Defensive tackle
Aaron Donald will play a crucial role in exploiting the absence of Trent Williams, particularly by generating pressure on Brock Purdy. With Donald commanding double-teams, the Rams’ pass rush could dictate the pace of the game.
3. Offensive Spotlight: McCaffrey Carries the Load for 49ers
With the 49ers missing key players, running back Christian McCaffrey is likely to shoulder a significant workload. According to the snap counts data:
- McCaffrey is on the field for 84% of offensive snaps, showcasing his importance as a dual-threat back.
- His versatility as a runner and receiver will be critical in keeping the 49ers offense afloat against a Rams defense that excels at limiting big plays.
The Rams, however, have allowed the second-fewest yards per carry this season, making this a tough matchup for McCaffrey on the ground.
4. Quarterback Comparison: Brock Purdy vs. Matthew Stafford
The QB EPA data highlights a key disparity between the two quarterbacks:
- Brock Purdy: Efficient but reliant on clean pockets, Purdy’s EPA per play ranks in the middle tier among starting QBs this season. Without Trent Williams, he could struggle under the Rams’ pressure.
- Matthew Stafford: While inconsistent, Stafford benefits from the Rams’ play-action-heavy scheme and should find success against a weakened 49ers pass rush if Nick Bosa is out.
Key Stats to Watch
49ers’ Defensive Production:
- Missing key starters, the 49ers have relied on depth players who may struggle to contain the Rams’ offense.
Rams’ Defensive Dominance:
- Aaron Donald leads the league in QB hits and ranks top 5 in total pressures. Against a depleted 49ers offensive line, Donald could force Brock Purdy into costly mistakes.
Snap Counts for Key Players:
- Christian McCaffrey: On the field for 84% of snaps, McCaffrey is the focal point of the 49ers’ offense.
- Puka Nacua (Rams WR): Leading all Rams receivers in snaps, Nacua has emerged as Stafford’s go-to target, particularly on intermediate routes.