Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Sunday 12/07 (Tyler Allgeier Focus)

Statistical analysis strongly supports the under 22.5 bet for Keon Coleman's player reception yards. Coleman's recent performance shows a trend of not reaching this mark, with an overall hit rate of 3 out of 26 attempts, indicating only an 11.5% success rate. Additionally, his home hit rate is even less successful, with only 2 out of 13 attempts hitting, or a 15.4% success rate. Looking at his last 5 games, both overall and at home, he has not once hit the mark. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is also zero. Thus, the data clearly shows that Coleman is not likely to surpass 22.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Cincinnati Bengals, making this under bet a statistically sound choice. The model edge of 0.193836016416031 also provides further support for this decision.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

The bet on Tyler Allgeier for 'Under 21.5' in the 'player_rush_yds' market is supported by a number of statistical trends. Allgeier's overall hit rate is low, with a 10 in 62 success rate overall and a 4 in 30 success rate at home games. In his last 20 games overall, he has hit this mark only 3 times, and just 4 times in home games. Specifically against the Seattle Seahawks, his performance has consistently been under the mark, with a 0 in 2 hit rate overall and at home. Moreover, Allgeier's recent performance shows a downward trend, with no successful hits in his last 5 games overall, at home, and against the Seahawks. Furthermore, Allgeier is currently on a zero game hit streak overall, at home, and against the Seahawks. These stats suggest Allgeier will struggle to exceed 21.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game against

Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The betting rationale for Keon Coleman to finish under 21.5 player reception yards in the game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals is statistically compelling. Coleman's recent performance data indicates a trend of struggling to accumulate reception yards. He has failed to hit the target in his last three, five, and ten overall games, as well as his last three and five home games. His hit rate is only 2/20 overall in the last 20 games and 2/13 at home, suggesting he is consistently underperforming. Furthermore, Coleman has a current hit streak of zero, both overall and at home, indicating poor recent form. These statistics, combined with a model edge of 0.17145333054238, provide strong evidence to support a bet on Coleman to finish under 21.5 reception yards in the upcoming game.

Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-137)

The betting rationale for "Under 1.5" on Derrick Henry's player receptions in the Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers game is statistically solid based on historical data. Although Derrick Henry's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 60% (12/20), his performance varies greatly depending on the opponent and location of the game. His hit rate against the Steelers is significantly lower, with only 33% (1/3) in the last 3, 5, and 10 games. Even more telling, when playing against the Steelers at home, Henry has failed to reach the 1.5 receptions mark in all recorded instances (0/1 in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, and overall). Additionally, his current hit streak against the Steelers is 0, underlining his struggle against this particular opponent. These trends suggest Derrick Henry is likely to finish with less than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game.

Rashod Bateman (BAL) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

The betting rationale for Rashod Bateman to be under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is strongly supported by his recent performance and trends. Bateman's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is just 2/20, indicating a low likelihood of surpassing the 20.5 threshold. In home games, the hit rate is equally low at 2/20. His performance against Pittsburgh also suggests a bet for the under, as his hit rate against them is 2/3. Additionally, his current hit streak is at zero, both overall and at home, showing a recent downturn in his performance. The model edge of 0.157 also supports the under bet. While he has performed well at home against Pittsburgh in the past (1/1), the overall data suggests a more conservative approach, favoring the under 20.5 bet for Bateman's reception yards.