Kayshon Boutte (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Kayshon Boutte to score a touchdown at any time during the New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons game is a risky wager based on his recent performance and trends. Boutte has not scored a touchdown in his last three games, as indicated by his overall and home hit rates of 0/3. His performance over the last five games also doesn't inspire confidence, with an overall hit rate of 0/5 and a home hit rate of 1/5. Looking at his longer-term record, Boutte has scored only once in his last 10 games, and three times in his last 20 games. His overall hit rate is 3/26, and his home hit rate is 2/13. Furthermore, he is currently not on a scoring streak. Given these statistics, the data does not support the bet that Boutte will score a touchdown at any time during the upcoming game.
Hunter Henry (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the data provided, betting "yes" on Hunter Henry to score a touchdown at any time during the New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons game seems a risky proposition. Over his last 20 games, Henry has only scored in 2, and his last 5 games have seen no touchdowns. His overall hit rate of 9/53 indicates a low likelihood of him scoring. His home hit rate is slightly higher at 5/26, but this game is not specified as home or away. His current streak of not scoring either at home or overall does not bode well for this bet. The model edge of 0.09, though positive, is relatively small. Therefore, based on these statistics, it may be more prudent to avoid this bet.
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : Over 45.5 Total Points (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 45.5 in the totals market for this game is justified by the strong offensive performances of the home team in their last five games, combined with the away team's defensive struggles. The home team has averaged 30.6 points per game, well above the league average. Their average total yards per game is also high at 357.8. Their explosive rate at 0.25 suggests they're capable of big plays that can quickly add points to the board. On the contrary, the away team has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 25 points per game. Their expected points added (EPA) against is 5.84, indicating they are giving up more points than expected. This combination of a high-scoring home team and a leaky away team defense makes a strong case for a total score exceeding 45.5. The model edge of 0.075 also suggests there is value in this bet.
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