Hunter Henry (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the data provided, betting "yes" on Hunter Henry to score a touchdown at any time during the New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons game seems a risky proposition. Over his last 20 games, Henry has only scored in 2, and his last 5 games have seen no touchdowns. His overall hit rate of 9/53 indicates a low likelihood of him scoring. His home hit rate is slightly higher at 5/26, but this game is not specified as home or away. His current streak of not scoring either at home or overall does not bode well for this bet. The model edge of 0.09, though positive, is relatively small. Therefore, based on these statistics, it may be more prudent to avoid this bet.
Hunter Henry (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+145)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Hunter Henry to score a touchdown anytime in the game between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons seems risky considering his recent performance and overall hit rates. His overall success rate for scoring touchdowns is a low 17% (9 out of 53). Moreover, his recent performance doesn't inspire confidence either - he hasn't scored a touchdown in the last five games, both overall and at home. His hit rate over the last 10 games is just 10% (1 out of 10). Therefore, despite a model edge of 0.082, the statistical data doesn't back a positive outcome for this bet. It's crucial to weigh the potential benefits against the evident trends and recent performances when making a bet. In this case, the data suggests it's a long shot for Henry to score a touchdown in this game.
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : Over 45.5 Total Points (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 45.5 in the totals market for this game is justified by the strong offensive performances of the home team in their last five games, combined with the away team's defensive struggles. The home team has averaged 30.6 points per game, well above the league average. Their average total yards per game is also high at 357.8. Their explosive rate at 0.25 suggests they're capable of big plays that can quickly add points to the board. On the contrary, the away team has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 25 points per game. Their expected points added (EPA) against is 5.84, indicating they are giving up more points than expected. This combination of a high-scoring home team and a leaky away team defense makes a strong case for a total score exceeding 45.5. The model edge of 0.075 also suggests there is value in this bet.
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : Over 45.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Statistical analysis suggests a strong case for a bet on Over 45.5 in this game. The home team has been in high scoring form, averaging 30.6 points in their last five matches. They also have an impressive overall L5 point differential of +15, indicating a significant scoring capacity. The away team, though less prolific, has an average score of 15.6 points in their last five games. Combined, both teams' average scores are well above the proposed total of 45.5. Moreover, the home team's explosive rate in their last five games is 0.25, which is fairly high, suggesting they have the potential for big plays that can lead to high scores. Additionally, the away team's defensive stats show they concede an average of 25 points per game, which could provide the home team with ample scoring opportunities. Therefore, the Over 45.5 bet seems statistically justified.
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