De'Von Achane (MIA) Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The under 24.5 player reception yards bet for De'Von Achane in the Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders game is supported by various statistical factors. First, a model edge of 0.19055042957962 indicates that the betting model sees a significant edge in this particular bet, implying a strong statistical basis for it. Second, considering Achane's recent performance, if his last five games reception yards are consistently below this threshold, it provides a robust trend supporting the under bet. It's crucial to assess this trend in the context of the opposition as well; if the Washington Commanders have a strong defensive record against receivers, this further strengthens the case for the under bet. Therefore, this bet is primarily based on Achane's recent performances and the statistical edge indicated by the model.
Robbie Chosen (MIA) Over 19.5 Player reception yds alternate (+490)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Robbie Chosen to achieve over 19.5 receiving yards in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market requires careful consideration of his recent performance and hit rates. Chosen's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 35% (7/20), slightly better at home with a hit rate of 46% (6/13). However, his recent form suggests a downward trend: in his last 5 matches, he didn't surpass 19.5 receiving yards at all (0/5); and his hit rate at home is only 40% (2/5). Moreover, he's currently on a zero hit streak both overall and at home, indicating a slump in his performance. Despite having a model edge of 0.1859, the data suggest that betting on Chosen to go over 19.5 receiving yards in this game might be risky considering his recent poor performance.
Robbie Chosen (MIA) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (+850)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Robbie Chosen to achieve over 1.5 receptions in the Miami Dolphins versus Washington Commanders game may not be the most favorable bet, given the recent performance data. Chosen's overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games suggests a relatively low success rate, falling only 1/3, 1/5, 2/10, and 6/20 times respectively. His performance at home games is even lower, with hit rates of 0/3, 1/5, 2/10, and 4/13 for the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games respectively. Furthermore, his current streak for both overall and home games is zero, indicating a lack of momentum. Although the model edge is 0.160485545837733, which suggests a slight advantage, the data points towards a trend of underperformance by Chosen in recent games. Therefore,
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