Davis Mills (HOU) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+197)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the data provided, betting on Davis Mills to rush for over 14.5 yards in the game between the Houston Texans and the Buffalo Bills appears to be a risky bet. Mills has not been successful in achieving this mark in his last five games, both overall and at home, as evidenced by his overall hit rate of 0/5 and home hit rate of 0/5. Similarly, his current hit streaks are both zero, indicating that he is not on a running form. Furthermore, his overall hit rate of 3/28 and home hit rate of 3/14 suggest that he only surpasses the 14.5-yard mark approximately 10.7% and 21.4% of the time, respectively. Hence, statistically, Davis Mills' recent performance does not warrant a confident bet for him to exceed 14.5 rushing yards in this matchup against the Buffalo Bills.
Davis Mills (HOU) Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Davis Mills to rush for over 8.5 yards in the game between the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills may not be the best choice based on his recent performances. Mills has not been reliable in rushing, as evidenced by his overall hit rate of 6/28 and home hit rate of 5/14. More recently, his performance has declined further with an overall hit rate of 0/3 and home hit rate of 0/3 in the last three games. His hit rate over the last five games isn't encouraging either, with only one successful rush in both overall and home games. Furthermore, Mills is currently on a zero-game hit streak, which suggests his rushing performance hasn't improved lately. The model edge is also minimal at 0.058, indicating that the statistical advantage of this bet is small. Thus, the statistics suggest that it's unlikely for Mills to rush over 8.5 yards in this game.
Nico Collins (HOU) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Nico Collins' performance data suggests a less favorable outcome for a 'Yes' bet in the 'player_anytime_td' market. With an overall hit rate of 30% (15/50) and a home hit rate of 48% (12/25), his general performance does not strongly support a positive outcome. His recent performance trends also show he hasn't scored a touchdown in the last 3 or 5 games, both overall and at home, further decreasing the odds of him scoring in the upcoming game. However, Collins' performance against the Buffalo Bills specifically may provide some hope. He has scored in every game he has played against them (1/1), both at home and away. This 100% hit rate, although based on a single game, could be an encouraging statistic. The model edge of 3.7% is relatively low, which indicates that the prediction model doesn't see a significant advantage in this bet. Considering the overall and recent statistics
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