Nico Collins (HOU) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Nico Collins scoring a touchdown anytime against the Buffalo Bills is statistically weak. Collins has been underperforming recently, with an overall hit rate of 0 in his last 5 games, and no touchdowns in his last 3 games at home. His overall hit rate stands at 30% (15/50), and his recent form does not inspire confidence. However, the one promising statistic is Collins' performance against the Bills. His hit rates against the Bills, both overall and at home, are 100% (1/1). This suggests that he could perform well against this specific opponent, but it's based on only one game, which is not a substantial sample size. Furthermore, this positive trend is contradicted by his overall and home current hit streaks of 0. In conclusion, while Collins' past success against the Bills offers some hope, his recent form makes this a risky bet.
Davis Mills (HOU) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on the presented data, the betting rationale for Davis Mills to rush over 7.5 yards in the game against Buffalo Bills is not strongly supported. His recent performance shows a negative trend in rushing yards. In his last three games, both overall and at home, he hasn't hit the over 7.5 yards benchmark. The same trend is also observed in his last five games, where he managed to exceed 7.5 yards only once. The overall hit rate of 8/28 and home hit rate of 6/14 further indicate a low probability of Mills surpassing the 7.5 rushing yards mark. Therefore, the statistical data doesn't favor this bet, and the model edge of only 0.0696 (approximately 6.96%) suggests a low confidence level in this outcome.
Davis Mills (HOU) Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Davis Mills to rush for over 8.5 yards in the game between the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills may not be the best choice based on his recent performances. Mills has not been reliable in rushing, as evidenced by his overall hit rate of 6/28 and home hit rate of 5/14. More recently, his performance has declined further with an overall hit rate of 0/3 and home hit rate of 0/3 in the last three games. His hit rate over the last five games isn't encouraging either, with only one successful rush in both overall and home games. Furthermore, Mills is currently on a zero-game hit streak, which suggests his rushing performance hasn't improved lately. The model edge is also minimal at 0.058, indicating that the statistical advantage of this bet is small. Thus, the statistics suggest that it's unlikely for Mills to rush over 8.5 yards in this game.
Nico Collins (HOU) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Nico Collins' performance data suggests a less favorable outcome for a 'Yes' bet in the 'player_anytime_td' market. With an overall hit rate of 30% (15/50) and a home hit rate of 48% (12/25), his general performance does not strongly support a positive outcome. His recent performance trends also show he hasn't scored a touchdown in the last 3 or 5 games, both overall and at home, further decreasing the odds of him scoring in the upcoming game. However, Collins' performance against the Buffalo Bills specifically may provide some hope. He has scored in every game he has played against them (1/1), both at home and away. This 100% hit rate, although based on a single game, could be an encouraging statistic. The model edge of 3.7% is relatively low, which indicates that the prediction model doesn't see a significant advantage in this bet. Considering the overall and recent statistics
Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills : NA Moneyline (-256)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Buffalo Bills in the head-to-head (h2h) market is supported by their strong performance statistics. Despite a minor model edge of 0.0285, the Bills have shown consistently solid performance in recent games. The Bills have an overall last 5 (L5) games score-for of 22.4 points compared to their opponents' 27.8, and a better score-against of 20.4 points versus 23.2. They also have a better net point difference of 2 in overall L5 games, against their opponents' 4.6. Moreover, Buffalo's home performance is impressive with a score-for of 24.4 points, score-against of 16.4 points, and point difference of 8. The Bills also boast a better home overall explosive rate (0.212) and a lower explosive rate against (0.170). Finally, their track record shows they have won the last game against this
Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills : NA Moneyline (-278)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Buffalo Bills in the h2h market seems a plausible choice based on the data provided. Although the model edge is marginal, the Bills have several favorable statistics. Looking at the overall last 5 games statistics, the Bills have a higher average score (27.8 vs 22.4), a higher expected points added (EPA) for (9.858 vs -4.628), and a higher explosive rate (0.231 vs 0.190), indicating a more dynamic offense. Despite having a lower point difference (4.6 vs 2) and a higher turnover for (1.4 vs 1), the Bills' overall performance suggests a better ability to score and gain yards. Focusing on the head-to-head away record, the Bills outperform in terms of an average score (25.2 vs 24.4) and total yards for (370.8 vs 355.2). Even though the Bills' away record in the last
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