Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers : NA +13.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Carolina Panthers have a strong case for covering the 13.5 point spread, based on the data from their recent performance. The Panthers have demonstrated a significant advantage in both scoring and defensive efficiency. Their last five games show an average score of 27.8 points for and 23.8 points against, a positive point difference of 4. Their Expected Points Added (EPA) difference is 6.27, indicating they have been more efficient in converting their possessions into points than their opponents. In contrast, the away team has struggled recently with an average score of 18.4 points for and 27.8 points against, resulting in a negative point difference of -9.4. Their EPA difference is -11.86, suggesting they have been less efficient. Furthermore, the Panthers have a superior home record (4-1) compared to the away team's record on the road (2-3). These factors indicate that the Panthers are likely to cover the
Emanuel Wilson (GB) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Emanuel Wilson to score a touchdown anytime during the Packers vs Panthers game seems unfavorable when considering his recent performance and hit rates. Wilson’s overall hit rate of 5 out of 31 attempts indicates that he scores a touchdown in approximately 16% of his games. In his last 20 games, he scored in only 4, suggesting a downward trend. His streak is also currently at zero, implying he hasn't scored in his most recent games. Although Wilson’s hit rate at home (3/14) is slightly better than his overall rate, it’s still under 25%, which doesn't significantly boost his chances. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting on Wilson to score a touchdown in the upcoming match might be a risky move.
Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers : Over 43.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Over 43.5 bet in the 'totals' market is statistically appealing mainly due to the high-scoring tendencies of both teams. The home team's last five games have seen an average of 27.8 points scored by them and 23.8 points scored against them. This totals 51.6 points per game, significantly higher than the set total of 43.5. The away team, while less prolific offensively with an average of 18.4 points scored, also has a porous defense that allows 27.8 points per game on average. Together, this totals 46.2 points, again above the set total. Moreover, both teams display strong offensive efficiency, indicated by their positive EPA (Expected Points Added) for statistics, while their defensive efficiencies are lacking, as shown by the negative EPA against statistics. These suggest high-scoring games. Considering these statistics, the Over 43.5 bet appears to be a statistically grounded choice.
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