Andrei Iosivas (CIN) Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data points towards betting on Andrei Iosivas to have under 19.5 reception yards in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Chicago Bears. Iosivas has been struggling recently, as indicated by his hit rate. Over his last three games, both overall and at home, he has not managed to exceed 19.5 reception yards. This trend extends to his last five games, where he also failed to hit this mark. Even over a longer sample of his last 10 games, he only managed to exceed this total 20% of the time. His overall hit rate, at 13 out of 32, or roughly 41%, further emphasizes his struggles. The model edge of 0.132 suggests that the model also views the under 19.5 bet as advantageous. Therefore, the statistics suggest that betting on Iosivas to have under 19.5 reception yards is a sound choice.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears : NA Moneyline (+120)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, the bet on Cincinnati Bengals in the head-to-head market seems justified. The Bengals have been consistently outperforming their opponents in recent games, with a positive point differential and EPA differential in their last five games overall. In comparison, the home team has a negative point differential and EPA differential in their last five games, both overall and at home. This suggests that the Bengals are likely to outscore their opponents. Additionally, the Bengals have a significantly better turnover differential compared to the home team, which could provide them with extra possessions and scoring opportunities. Their record in their last five games (4-1 overall and 3-2 away) is also better than the home team's record (1-4 overall and 3-2 at home), indicating a stronger recent performance. Overall, the data suggests a higher probability of a Bengals win, making them a good bet in the head-to-head market.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears : Over 51.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 51.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is primarily driven by the recent scoring trends of both teams. The home team has averaged 23.2 points in their last five games overall and 31.2 points in their last five home games. The away team, on the other hand, has averaged 24.6 points in their last five games overall and 22.2 in their last five away games. Combined, their scoring averages suggest a total score exceeding the 51.5 point mark set by the market. Moreover, the home team's defense has been porous, allowing an average of 32.4 points in their last five games overall and 31.6 points in their last five home games. This could provide the away team with ample scoring opportunities. The model edge of 0.0849 also supports the Over 51.5 bet, indicating a slight statistical advantage in favor of a higher-scoring game. This, combined
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