Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Under 44.5 Total Points (-104)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data leans toward an under 44.5 bet for this game. Firstly, the home team's L5 score for is 26.4 and score against is 24.6, producing a combined average of 51. However, in their home games, the score for drops to 21.6 and score against to 16.2, lowering the combined average to 37.8, well under 44.5. Additionally, the away team's overall L5 score for is 25.4 and score against is 25, yielding an average of 50.4. But in their away games, the score for decreases to 22 and score against increases to 26.4, resulting in a combined average of 48.4. Coupled with the model edge of 0.0867, the data suggests a lower scoring game. Also, the home team has a solid defensive EPA against, which could limit scoring. Therefore, an under 44
D'Andre Swift (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
D'Andre Swift's recent performance doesn't lend much confidence in betting on him to score a touchdown at any point in the game. His overall hit rates are low, with him scoring in just 19 of his last 57 games overall and 12 out of 29 home games. Additionally, his recent hit rates are significantly lower: he's scored in only 1 of his last 10 games overall and 2 out of his last 10 home games. In fact, Swift hasn't scored a touchdown in his last 5 games overall and his last 5 home games. He's currently on a zero-game touchdown streak both at home and overall. Given these statistics, it seems unlikely that Swift will break his scoring drought in the upcoming game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Under 45.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 45.5 bet for this game is statistically motivated by several factors. First, the home team's last five home games have seen an average combined score of just 37.8 points, well below the line. The away team's last five away games have seen a higher average combined score of 48.4, but this is skewed by an average of 26.4 points scored against them, indicating a weaker defense. They've only managed to put up an average of 22 points themselves. Moreover, the home team has a strong record of creating turnovers, with an average of 2 turnovers forced per game over the last five games. This can limit the away team's scoring opportunities. The expected points added (EPA) stats also suggest a likely low-scoring game. The home team's EPA differential for their last five home games is positive at 4.69, indicating they are efficient in both offense and defense. Given these stats, the game is
Rome Odunze (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Rome Odunze to score a touchdown at any time during the Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers game appears statistically unpromising. Odunze's recent performance hasn't been strong. He has not scored a touchdown in his last ten games overall, and the same holds for his last five games at home. His hit rate over the last 20 games is merely 5% (1/20). Moreover, his overall home hit rate is 0%, as he hasn't scored in 13 home games. This is supported by his current hit streak of zero, both overall and at home. The model edge of about 6.75% suggests a slight potential advantage, but this is negligible given Odunze's consistent non-scoring performance. Therefore, based on the provided data, betting on Odunze to score a touchdown in this game would be a high-risk move.
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA -3 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Chicago Bears -3 in the 'spreads' market appears to be a solid choice based on the data provided. The Bears show a strong record in their last five games, both overall (4-1) and at home (3-2). They have consistently scored more than they have conceded, averaging 26.4 points for and 24.6 against overall, and 21.6 for and 16.2 against at home. This is backed by their positive EPA (Expected Points Added) differential in both categories, indicating they make effective use of their possession. Furthermore, their ability to force turnovers (2 against on average in the last five games) whilst maintaining low turnovers for (0.4 and 0.6 overall and at home respectively), adds to their strong defensive record. The opposing team, on the other hand, has shown a weaker performance, particularly when playing away, with a negative point differential (-4.4) and EPA differential (-3.
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA -3 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Chicago Bears have a strong statistical advantage in this matchup, making them a solid bet at -3 in the spreads market. Over their last five games, the Bears have an overall point differential of +1.8 and a home point differential of +5.4, indicating a strong performance. In contrast, the opposing team has an overall point differential of just +0.4 and a negative home point differential of -4.4. Moreover, the Bears have a better home and overall record over the last five games (4-1; 3-2) compared to the opposing team's records (2-3; 2-3). The Bears also outperform in EPA (Expected Points Added) differential, total yards, and turnovers, suggesting a more efficient offensive and defensive play. Lastly, the model edge of 0.01 also slightly favors the Bears. Therefore, based on these statistical advantages, betting on the Chicago Bears -3 in the spreads market is a statistically sound decision
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