Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical analysis strongly supports the under 22.5 bet for Keon Coleman's player reception yards. Coleman's recent performance shows a trend of not reaching this mark, with an overall hit rate of 3 out of 26 attempts, indicating only an 11.5% success rate. Additionally, his home hit rate is even less successful, with only 2 out of 13 attempts hitting, or a 15.4% success rate. Looking at his last 5 games, both overall and at home, he has not once hit the mark. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is also zero. Thus, the data clearly shows that Coleman is not likely to surpass 22.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Cincinnati Bengals, making this under bet a statistically sound choice. The model edge of 0.193836016416031 also provides further support for this decision.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting data for Dalton Kincaid indicates a low likelihood of a positive outcome in the 'player_anytime_td' market. His overall hit rate is a mere 4/42, with his home hit rate slightly better at 3/23, while his hit rate against Cincinnati Bengals is 0/1. Kincaid's recent performance does not inspire confidence either, with no successful outcomes in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, both overall and at home. His hit streak is also at zero for all categories. The model edge of 0.15752416041311 is relatively low, suggesting that the probability of him scoring a touchdown anytime is not high. Therefore, statistically, it would be a risky bet to wager on a 'Yes' outcome for Dalton Kincaid in the 'player_anytime_td' market for the Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals game.
Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA Moneyline (+230)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Cincinnati Bengals in the h2h market is based on their superior performance statistically over the last five games. The Bengals have a positive overall point difference (3.4) and EPA (Expected Points Added) difference (3.76) in the last five games, indicating their ability to score more and concede less in comparison to their opponents. In contrast, the away team has a negative point difference (-3.2) and EPA difference (-3.98) in the same period. Moreover, the Bengals have been stronger at home, with a 4-1 home record in the last five games, and a higher home point difference (7.6) and EPA difference (7.21). Meanwhile, the away team has struggled, reflected in their overall 1-4 record and particularly poor performance in away games, with a negative point difference (-15.2) and EPA difference (-14.74). Despite Cincinnati's 0-2 record against the opponent in the
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