Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-137)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for "Under 1.5" on Derrick Henry's player receptions in the Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers game is statistically solid based on historical data. Although Derrick Henry's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 60% (12/20), his performance varies greatly depending on the opponent and location of the game. His hit rate against the Steelers is significantly lower, with only 33% (1/3) in the last 3, 5, and 10 games. Even more telling, when playing against the Steelers at home, Henry has failed to reach the 1.5 receptions mark in all recorded instances (0/1 in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, and overall). Additionally, his current hit streak against the Steelers is 0, underlining his struggle against this particular opponent. These trends suggest Derrick Henry is likely to finish with less than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game.
Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical analysis strongly supports the under 22.5 bet for Keon Coleman's player reception yards. Coleman's recent performance shows a trend of not reaching this mark, with an overall hit rate of 3 out of 26 attempts, indicating only an 11.5% success rate. Additionally, his home hit rate is even less successful, with only 2 out of 13 attempts hitting, or a 15.4% success rate. Looking at his last 5 games, both overall and at home, he has not once hit the mark. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is also zero. Thus, the data clearly shows that Coleman is not likely to surpass 22.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Cincinnati Bengals, making this under bet a statistically sound choice. The model edge of 0.193836016416031 also provides further support for this decision.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Tyler Allgeier for 'Under 21.5' in the 'player_rush_yds' market is supported by a number of statistical trends. Allgeier's overall hit rate is low, with a 10 in 62 success rate overall and a 4 in 30 success rate at home games. In his last 20 games overall, he has hit this mark only 3 times, and just 4 times in home games. Specifically against the Seattle Seahawks, his performance has consistently been under the mark, with a 0 in 2 hit rate overall and at home. Moreover, Allgeier's recent performance shows a downward trend, with no successful hits in his last 5 games overall, at home, and against the Seahawks. Furthermore, Allgeier is currently on a zero game hit streak overall, at home, and against the Seahawks. These stats suggest Allgeier will struggle to exceed 21.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game against
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