Zay Flowers (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+205)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data does not support a bet on Zay Flowers to score a touchdown anytime in the upcoming Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers game. Across recent performances, Flowers' overall hit rate is low. In his last 5, 10, and 20 games, he has failed to score a touchdown. His home performance does not provide any difference, as he's not scored a touchdown in his last 3, 5, or 10 home games. His performance against Pittsburgh is also not promising, with only 1 touchdown in the last 3, 5, and 20 games against them, and none at home. His overall hit rate of 8/47 and home hit rate of 4/25 further underscore his dry spell. The current hit streaks in all categories are at zero, indicating a lack of momentum. Despite a model edge of 0.17448289416099, the persistently low scoring rates across all categories suggest a high risk in this bet.
Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-137)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for "Under 1.5" on Derrick Henry's player receptions in the Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers game is statistically solid based on historical data. Although Derrick Henry's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 60% (12/20), his performance varies greatly depending on the opponent and location of the game. His hit rate against the Steelers is significantly lower, with only 33% (1/3) in the last 3, 5, and 10 games. Even more telling, when playing against the Steelers at home, Henry has failed to reach the 1.5 receptions mark in all recorded instances (0/1 in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, and overall). Additionally, his current hit streak against the Steelers is 0, underlining his struggle against this particular opponent. These trends suggest Derrick Henry is likely to finish with less than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game.
Rashod Bateman (BAL) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Rashod Bateman to be under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is strongly supported by his recent performance and trends. Bateman's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is just 2/20, indicating a low likelihood of surpassing the 20.5 threshold. In home games, the hit rate is equally low at 2/20. His performance against Pittsburgh also suggests a bet for the under, as his hit rate against them is 2/3. Additionally, his current hit streak is at zero, both overall and at home, showing a recent downturn in his performance. The model edge of 0.157 also supports the under bet. While he has performed well at home against Pittsburgh in the past (1/1), the overall data suggests a more conservative approach, favoring the under 20.5 bet for Bateman's reception yards.
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