Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+241)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
This bet on Michael Penix Jr. for Over 14.5 in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market is based on his recent performances and trends. Recent stats show that Penix Jr. has been consistently surpassing this mark, with his last five games demonstrating an average rush yard count that is significantly higher than the proposed 14.5 yards. This indicates a strong likelihood that he will continue to exceed this margin in the upcoming game against the Carolina Panthers. Additionally, the model edge of 0.146843097428495 suggests that there's a significant advantage to this particular bet. Furthermore, the Panthers' defense has been struggling against the run recently, which provides an even better opportunity for Penix Jr. to rack up the rushing yards. In conclusion, based on Penix Jr.'s consistent performance and the Panthers' defensive struggles, this bet provides a statistically solid opportunity.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, betting on Tyler Allgeier to score a touchdown anytime during the Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers game appears to be a risky proposition. Allgeier's recent performance (last 5 and last 10 games) shows a disappointing hit rate, with zero touchdowns scored in his last five games overall and at home, and just one touchdown scored in his last ten home games. However, it's worth noting that Allgeier seems to perform better against the Panthers, with hit rates of 2/5 in the last five games and 3/6 in the last ten games against them. His hit rate against the Panthers at home is even more promising at 2/3. Nonetheless, his overall hit rate is low (11/59), and his current hit streaks are at zero. Therefore, while the model suggests a slight edge, the real-world data implies that Allgeier scoring a touchdown is statistically unlikely.
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Over 6.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Michael Penix Jr. to rush for over 6.5 yards in the Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers game is backed by his recent performance and overall trends. If we look at his last five games, Penix Jr. has consistently surpassed 6.5 rushing yards, demonstrating his ability to pick up yardage on the ground. This suggests a solid trend indicating his potential to continue performing at a high level. Additionally, the model edge, a statistical measure that compares the probability of a bet winning to its odds, is positive for this bet at 0.083. This means that, based on historical data, the bet has a good chance of winning. Therefore, considering Penix Jr.'s recent performances and the model edge, betting on him to rush for over 6.5 yards seems a statistically sound decision.
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